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Global economic growth is expected to be subdued this year and next, mainly due to softer dynamics in developed economies. The global economy has been negatively affected by weak external demand, partly stifled by rising trade protectionism. Supportive fiscal and monetary policies, tight labor markets and low inflation, however, are expected to cushion the slowdown.
Latin Americas growth outlook was cut again this month, continuing the trend seen over the past six months. Headwinds from trade tensions and country-specific factors are seen stunting activity. Particularly, Argentina is seen stuck in a deep recession amid a confidence crisis, while fiscal consolidation, policy uncertainty and low sentiment are weighing on several economies.
Growth is seen fairly stable next year, with slowdowns in the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico offset by faster growth in Costa Rica and Panama. Political uncertainty in Haiti and Nicaragua, exposure to natural disasters and uncertainty over the future of the TPS program in the U.S.the termination of which could hit remittancesare downside risks.
The U.S.-China trade war continues to hinder the regional outlook, exacting a toll on the regions external sectors. That said, accommodative fiscal and monetary policies should allay the bite from the trade row. While the recent reopening in trade talks could reduce trade tensions going forward, a slowdown in China, and a potential trade reescalation are forefront risks.
The East Asian economy is seen decelerating this year as export-driven economies face headwinds from escalating trade tensions between China and the United States, which are adding to already strong headwinds against the global economy. More supportive fiscal and monetary policies should, however, support growth.
Growth shifted into a lower gear in the second quarter
Regional growth will ease this year, due to a challenging external backdrop and as the business cycle matures. The economy is seen losing further traction in 2020 as supply-side constraints bite harder, wage growth softens and EU fund inflows moderate. An intensification of U.S.-China trade tensions and a sharper global slowdown pose downside risks to the outlook.
Regional economic growth is expected to slow in 2019, largely due to a contraction in Turkey. Moreover, a weaker Euro area will likely weigh on external demand. That said, domestic metrics should support growth, underpinned by healthy private consumption and capital spending. Ongoing trade tensions, the EU slowdown and a fragile political climate in Turkey cloud the outlook.
The regions growth prospects for 2019 remained downbeat in October, amid deteriorating expectations for Russia. Weak consumer demand in Russia and external headwinds are set to continue weighing on the regions outlook this year, although sturdier growth in Azerbaijan, coupled with improving conditions in Kazakhstan and Ukraine, should cushion the slowdown.
While oil production cuts have significantly weighed on MENAs economic growth this year, this situation could reverse if the OPEC+ deal ends in March 2020 as planned. Irrespective, regional geopolitical threats and domestic political unrest will continue to put downward pressure on growth this year and, probably, also in 2020
Regional growth prospects were cut in October, mainly by expectations of Angola remaining in recession and on weaker outlooks for smaller economies like DR Congo, Mozambique and Zambia. Still-elevated trade tensions, commodity-price volatility, a weakening global economy, the slow pace of domestic reforms, corruption challenges, and policy uncertainty cloud the outlook.
NewsGermany: Despite rebounding industrial production in August, the outlook remains grim
Industrial production rose 0.3% month-on-month on a seasonally- and calendar-adjusted basis in August, swinging from a revised 0.4% drop in July (previously reported: -0.6% month-on-month).
Alberto Fernndezs Everyones Front coalition (Frente de Todos) is the strong favorite to win Argentinas general elections scheduled for 27 October, increasing the likelihood of unorthodox economic policies ahead.
Industrial production increased 1.7% year-on-year in seasonally- and calendar-adjusted terms in August, up from Julys revised 1.2% rise (previously reported: +0.8% year-on-year).
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