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The global economy took a big hit in 2019, and recession fears are widespread. We argue that the risk of a larger downturnwhile not absentwill be contained, and the global economy will likely return to its slow, long-term growth trend of 2.7 percent sooner rather than later. The downturn in the industrial cycle will most likely ease and eventually bottom out. Consumers around the world will benefit from rising wages and low inflation rates while businesses continue to leverage innovation and digital transformation to grow top-line revenue and reduce costs to avoid a major squeeze on profits. However, the contribution of trade to global growth will lessen as businesses shorten value chains by trading up and going local. Productivity growth is critical to make up for the slack of slower globalization and weaker growth in the global workforce.

See press releaseGlobal Economy Will Avoid Recession, and See Some Recovery in 2020.

To explore the Global Economic Outlook data, use the online data tool (including an option to download the data in excel format) availablehere.

Are you interested in getting in touch with our researchers behind the GEO model? Do you need someone to review your own growth model? If you would like to get in touch with us, please send an email .

The next quarterly updated of The Conference Boards Global Economic Outlook is scheduled for mid-January 2020.

For Productivity Dialogue Among Top Business Leaders of Japan, the US, and Germany.

1st Business Leaders Forum on Productivity

StraightTalk®Global Economic Outlook 2020: Stagnating Growth and Stalling Globalization: Whats Ahead?

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© 2019 The Conference Board Inc. All rights reserved. The Conference Board and torch logo are registered trademarks of The Conference Board.

The use of all TCB data and materials is subject to the Terms of Use. Reprint requests are reviewed individually and may be subject to additional fees. TCB reserves the right to deny any request.